Will Donald Trump say “Nobel Prize / Peace Prize”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel Prize / Peace Prize” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel Prize / Peace Prize
- Probability
- 58% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…them. Sweden, Norway. I don't think so because I didn't get the Nobel Prize even though I ended it. So, I don't want anybody from…
…settled I've settled eight wars. Think of that. Did I get the Nobel Prize? No. DID I GET THE NOBEL PRIZE? EXCUSE ME. BYRON, did…
…any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I came…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Thailand. Kosovo. I settled all these wars and they gave the wonderful peace prize, right? Does anybody know the name of that peace prize? The…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Nobel Prize / Peace Prize |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Nobel Prize / Peace Prize | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Nobel Prize / Peace Prize | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel Prize / Peace Prize”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel Prize / Peace Prize” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel Prize / Peace Prize” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel Prize / Peace Prize’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nobel-prize-or-peace-prize (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nobel%20prize%20%2F%20peace%20prize · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP