# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-10-06 (settled) · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT06 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:58:34Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-06 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT06 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 2:00 PM ET Sep 29 and before Oct 6, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Newscum	newscum	9	5	0.56	YnnYnYYnY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	11	4	0.36	nYnnnnYnYY	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Nobel Prize / Peace Prize	nobel prize|peace prize	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Football	football	1	1	1	Y	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	1	1	1	Y	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	10	4	0.4	nnnnYnnYYY	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.58	hist	0	0	no	1
Tylenol	tylenol	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	10	3	0.3	nnYnnnYnnY	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	16	8	0.5	YYnYnnnnnY	0.53	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	2	1	0.5	nY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Panican	panican	2	0	0	nn	0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	18	3	0.17	nYYnnnnnYn	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	21	6	0.29	YYYnnnnnnn	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	130	7	0.05	nnnnnnnnYY	0.14	hist	0	0	yes	1
Buttigieg	buttigieg	1	0	0	n	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
DeSantis	desantis	1	0	0	n	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Amish	amish	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1