# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-01-21 · 17 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN21 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:23:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Katie Pavlich Tonight, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	153	113	0.74	YYYYYYnnnn	1	1	0.76	yes
Iran	iran	36	24	0.67	YYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.66	yes
Eight War	eight war	36	23	0.64	YnYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.64	no
Democrat	democrat	66	44	0.67	YnnYYYYnYY	1	1	0.59	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	85	53	0.62	nYYYYnnnnY	1	1	0.57	yes
Election	election	59	35	0.59	YnYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.54	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	9	4	0.44	nnnnYYYnY	1	1	0.54	yes
Hottest	hottest	119	68	0.57	YYYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.45	yes
Maduro / Venezuela	maduro|venezuela	9	3	0.33	YnnnnYnYn	1	1	0.44	yes
Inflation	inflation	42	18	0.43	nYnnnnnYYY	1	1	0.43	yes
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	11	4	0.36	YnnYYnYnnn	1	1	0.42	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	34	13	0.38	nnYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.4	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	16	8	0.5	YnnYYYnnnn	1	1	0.38	no
Fraud	fraud	8	4	0.5	YnYYnnYn	1	0	0.36	no
Greenland	greenland	23	8	0.35	nYnnnYYnnY	1	1	0.34	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	34	12	0.35	nnnnnYnYnn	1	1	0.28	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	236	20	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.13	no