# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-02-04 · 18 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB04 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:01:54Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-04 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB04 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of meetings with the President of the Republic of Colombia, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p
Tariff	tariff	114	78	0.68	YYYnnYnnYY	1	1	0.65
Democrat	democrat	73	50	0.68	nYYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.65
Biden	biden	167	121	0.72	YYnnYnYnnY	1	1	0.61
Border	border	92	56	0.61	nnYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.55
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	14	9	0.64	nYnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.53
Hottest	hottest	133	74	0.56	nYnnYnnnnn	1	1	0.53
China	china	107	69	0.64	YnYYnnnYYn	1	1	0.52
Eight War	eight war	47	28	0.6	YYnnYnYnYn	1	1	0.51
Cuba	cuba	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.46
Fentanyl	fentanyl	26	7	0.27	nnnYYYnnnY	1	1	0.43
Cartel	cartel	6	2	0.33	YnnnnY	1	1	0.37
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	60	21	0.35	YnnnnnYnnn	1	1	0.36
Cocaine	cocaine	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.34
Epstein	epstein	61	13	0.21	YYYnnnnYYn	1	0	0.31
Water	water	27	7	0.26	nnnnnnnYnY	1	1	0.3
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	17	6	0.35	nYYYnnnnnn	1	1	0.28
Maduro	maduro	46	17	0.37	nYYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.27
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	255	25	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.05