# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-16 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:55:11Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-16 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Medal of Freedom Ceremony for Charlie Kirk on October 14th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	68	56	0.82	YnYYYYnYYY	0.81	yes
Democrat	democrat	15	12	0.8	nYYYYYYYYY	0.73	no
Election	election	14	11	0.79	nYnYYYnYYY	0.7	no
Hottest	hottest	24	17	0.71	YYnYYYYYYY	0.68	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	13	9	0.69	YYYYYYYYnY	0.65	no
Border	border	35	24	0.69	YnYYYYYYYn	0.63	yes
Radical Left	radical left	8	6	0.75	YYYYnYnY	0.56	yes
Debate	debate	7	5	0.71	YYYnYnY	0.52	no
Turning Point	turning point	2	2	1	YY	0.51	yes
College / Campus	campus|college	1	1	1	Y	0.51	yes
Free Speech	free speech	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.51	yes
Hostage	hostage	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.51	no
Faith	faith	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.5	yes
Young People	young people	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	yes
Terrorist	terrorist	7	4	0.57	YnYYnYn	0.42	no
Woke	woke	20	4	0.2	nnnnYnnYnY	0.41	no
Antifa	antifa	7	2	0.29	YYnnnnn	0.39	no
Political Violence	political violence	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.35	no
Transgender	transgender	29	14	0.48	YnnYnYYnnn	0.32	no
TikTok	tiktok	23	7	0.3	YnnnnnnnnY	0.32	no