Will Donald Trump say “Refugee”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Refugee” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Refugee
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…countries, whether it's welfare fraud, where we're getting ripped off by these refugees and foreign scammers, or cybercrime, where you have entire foreign economies that…
…your working life paying for fraudsters and scammers, many of whom are refugees, illegal aliens, and foreigners who came to this country to loot and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Refugee”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Refugee” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Refugee” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Refugee’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/refugee (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=refugee · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP