# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-05-21 · 30 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY21 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-south-african-president-on-may-21 · as_of 2026-10-25T01:17:27Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-05-21 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the Bilateral Meeting with the President of the Republic of South Africa originally scheduled for 12:45 PM ET in the Oval Office, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-south-african-president-on-may-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Joe / Biden 5+ times	biden|joe#5	5	P	7	6	0.86	YYnYYYY	0.62	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	K	6	5	0.83	YnYYYY	0.55	hist	yes
Steve / Witkoff	steve|witkoff	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Congo	congo	1	P	2	2	1	YY	0.46	hist	yes
Mineral	mineral	1	K	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.43	hist	no
Hamas	hama	1	P	10	5	0.5	YYnnYnnYnY	0.43	hist	no
Tariff 5+ times	tariff#5	5	P	8	3	0.38	nnnYYnnY	0.43	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	KP	26	15	0.58	nYnnnnnnnY	0.42	hist	no
Starlink	starlink	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.41	hist	no
Tesla	tesla	1	K	9	3	0.33	nYnnYnYnn	0.38	hist	no
Hell	hell	1	P	2	0	0	nn	0.36	hist	yes
Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times	billion|million|trillion#7	7	P	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine 5+ times	russia|ukraine#5	5	P	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	yes
BRICS	bric	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
Trade	trade	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
Roof	roof	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	91	4	0.04	YnnnnnYnnn	0.07	hist	no
Africa 8+ times	africa#8	8	P	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Brutal / Brutally	brutal|brutally	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Race	race	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Watch list	watch list	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
White farmer	white farmer	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Afrikaners	afrikaner	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Discrimination	discrimination	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Equity	equity	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Expropriation	expropriation	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no
G20	g20	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Genocide	genocide	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Refugee	refugee	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Sanction	sanction	1	K	0	0			0.37	prior	no