# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2025-04-07 · 32 words in 33 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR07 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-netanyahu-events-today · as_of 2026-10-25T06:42:14Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-04-07 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the bilateral with Netanyahu, specifically the presser held in the East Room scheduled for 2:30PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-netanyahu-events-today (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	1	K	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.61	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	7	4	0.57	YYnnYnY	0.48	hist	yes
Iron dome / Missile defense shield	iron dome|missile defense shield	1	P	0	0			0.48	hist	no
Reciprocal	reciprocal	1	P	2	2	1	YY	0.47	hist	yes
Tariff 10+ times	tariff#10	10	P	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Howard / Lutnick	howard|lutnick	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.4	hist	no
Terrorist	terrorist	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.39	hist	no
Iran 3+ times	iran#3	3	P	1	1	1	Y	0.38	hist	yes
Peace	peace	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.37	hist	no
Hell 3+ times	hell#3	3	P	5	3	0.6	YYnYn	0.36	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	P	4	0	0	nnnn	0.31	hist	yes
Houthi	houthi	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	yes
Gaza	gaza	1	K	8	3	0.38	YnnYnnYn	0.3	hist	no
Jew / Jewish	jew|jewish	1	P	0	0			0.3	hist	no
Hostage	hostage	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.26	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	K	4	0	0	nnnn	0.25	hist	no
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	76	2	0.03	nnnnnnnnnn	0.06	hist	no
Boom	boom	1	P	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Gaza 10+ times	gaza#10	10	P	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Holocaust	holocaust	1	P	0	0			0.37	prior	no
ICC / International Criminal Court	icc|international criminal court	1	P	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Israel 7+ times	israel#7	7	P	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
President Xi	president xi	1	P	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Qatar	qatar	1	P	0	0			0.37	prior	no
17 percent	17 percent	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Bilateral	bilateral	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Diplomat / Diplomacy / Diplomatic	diplomacy|diplomat|diplomatic	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Humanitarian Aid	humanitarian aid	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Jerusalem	jerusalem	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Middle East	middle east	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Negotiation	negotiation	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Obvious subject	obvious subject	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Security	security	1	K	0	0			0.3	prior	no