Will JD Vance say “New York”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “New York” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 9, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
New York
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…so we just decided as a team that I would go to New York for 9/11 and the President would stay here in DC, of…
…American people want the government reopened, and this is proven in a New York Times poll showing that two in three Americans say the government…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | New York |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “New York”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “New York” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “New York” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘New York’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/new-york (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=new%20york · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP