# JD Vance (jd-vance) · other 2026-03-09 · 20 words · K k:KXMENTION-VP26MAR24 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:17:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-09 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-VP26MAR24 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of International Association of Fire Fighters, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
American Dream	american dream	12	10	0.83	nYYYYYYYYY	2	0	0.7	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	13	11	0.85	YYYYYnYYYY	2	2	0.69	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	11	9	0.82	YnYYYYYnYY	2	0	0.64	hist	yes
Biden	biden	20	16	0.8	nYYYYYYnYn	2	2	0.63	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	11	8	0.73	YYnYnYnYYY	2	2	0.6	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	7	5	0.71	YYYnYYn	2	1	0.56	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	3	2	0.67	nYY	2	1	0.53	hist	no
Election	election	7	4	0.57	YnnYYnY	2	0	0.5	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	2	1	0.46	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	1	0.44	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.35	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.35	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.35	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	16	5	0.31	YYnnnnnYnn	2	0	0.33	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.3	hist	no
America First	america first	13	3	0.23	nnYYnnnnnn	2	0	0.28	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	8	1	0.12	nYnnnnnn	2	0	0.25	hist	no
Trillion	trillion	4	0	0	nnnn	2	0	0.25	hist	no
New York	new york	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
Sacrifice / Sacrificed / Sacrificing	sacrifice|sacrificed|sacrificing	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	yes