# Karoline Leavitt (karoline-leavitt) · interview 2026-08-27 · 22 words · K k:KXLEAVITTMENTION-26AUG27 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:21:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-27 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-03-10..2026-07-23 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXLEAVITTMENTION-26AUG27 ({word} = w of K rows): If Karoline Leavitt says {word} as part of Fox & Friends , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	3	2	0.67	YnY	8	5	0.48	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	1	1	Y	8	5	0.47	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	4	3	0.75	YYYn	8	7	0.46	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	2	1	0.5	nY	8	3	0.46	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	1	1	Y	8	5	0.44	hist	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	4	0.39	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	0	0			8	7	0.39	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	0	0.38	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	0	0			8	4	0.38	hist	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	0	0			8	0	0.37	hist	no
Election / Midterms	election|midterm	0	0			8	5	0.34	hist	yes
Border	border	1	0	0	n	8	3	0.33	hist	yes
Biden	biden	4	1	0.25	nnYn	8	5	0.32	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.29	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	8	1	0.28	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	3	0	0	nnn	8	3	0.27	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.27	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.27	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	0	0			8	2	0.38	prior	yes
Jennings	jenning	0	0			8	0	0.38	prior	no
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	0	0			8	0	0.38	prior	no
Mail-in Voting	mail in voting	0	0			8	0	0.38	prior	no