# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-10-08 · 22 words · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT08 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:54:48Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-10-08 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT08 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Michigan U.S. Senate debate originally scheduled for October 8, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Data Center	data center	1	12	11	0.92	YYYYYYYYYY	0.84	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	0.83	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	7	6	0.86	YYYYYnY	0.82	hist	yes
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement	endorse|endorsed|endorsement	1	7	6	0.86	nYYYYYY	0.77	hist	no
Billionaire	billionaire	1	11	9	0.82	YYnnYYYYYY	0.76	hist	yes
AIPAC	aipac	1	2	2	1	YY	0.73	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	2	2	1	YY	0.73	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	10	8	0.8	YYYnYYnYYY	0.71	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	14	11	0.79	YYYYnnYYYY	0.7	hist	no
Medicaid / Medicare	medicaid|medicare	1	2	2	1	YY	0.68	hist	yes
Union	union	1	1	1	1	Y	0.68	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	24	14	0.58	nYnYYYYYYY	0.67	hist	yes
Climate	climate	1	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	0.63	hist	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	1	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.57	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	10	6	0.6	YYnnYYYnnY	0.53	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	10	6	0.6	YYYnnYnnYY	0.53	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	15	7	0.47	YnYnnnnYnY	0.48	hist	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	9	4	0.44	YYnnYYnnn	0.43	hist	no
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	2	0	0	nn	0.4	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.27	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.6	prior	yes
Filibuster	filibuster	1	0	0			0.6	prior	no