Will “Elon / Musk” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Elon / Musk” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Elon / Musk
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Elon / Musk |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Elon / Musk |  Polymarket | No |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Elon / Musk” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Elon / Musk” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025.
- What is the probability “Elon / Musk” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Elon / Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP