Will “Israel / Israeli” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel / Israeli” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (69%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

67%from settlement history only · n=13counts: any candidate
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Israel / Israeli

Probability
67% · n=13
Settled
9/13 (69%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled no

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 28, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 27, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Jul 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
May 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Apr 21, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Israel / Israeli” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel / Israeli” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (69%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “Israel / Israeli” is said at the Political debates next time?
67%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP