Will “Trump” be said 5+ times at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” was said 5+ times at the Political debates on 9 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (90%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 80% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

80%from settlement history only · n=10counts: any candidate
Last 10
9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=trump%20%285%2B%20times%29

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Trump (5+ times)

Probability
80% · n=10
Settled
9/10 (90%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · settled no

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What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 10 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 13, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiNo
Sep 30, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Aug 20, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes
Apr 21, 2026Trump (5+ times)KalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Trump (5+ times)” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” was said 5+ times at the Political debates on 9 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (90%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “Trump (5+ times)” is said at the Political debates next time?
80%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Trump (5+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/trump-5plus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=trump%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP