Will “Billionaire” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Billionaire” was said at the Political debates on 12 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 4, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 81% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

81%from settlement history only · n=14counts: any candidate
Last 10
9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 9 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=billionaire

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Billionaire

Probability
81% · n=14
Settled
12/14 (86%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 13, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Jul 28, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Jul 27, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Jul 7, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
May 14, 2026BillionaireKalshiYes
Apr 1, 2026BillionaireKalshiNo
Mar 18, 2026BillionaireKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025BillionaireKalshiYes
Jun 12, 2025BillionaireKalshiYes
Jun 4, 2025BillionaireKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Billionaire” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Billionaire” was said at the Political debates on 12 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 4, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “Billionaire” is said at the Political debates next time?
81%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Billionaire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/billionaire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=billionaire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP