Will “Tariff” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (69%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 68% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

68%from settlement history only · n=13counts: any candidate
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 5 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=tariff

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Tariff

Probability
68% · n=13
Settled
9/13 (69%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026TariffKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Oct 13, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2026TariffKalshiNo
May 14, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Apr 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 18, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Feb 20, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Jan 27, 2026TariffKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Tariff” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (69%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “Tariff” is said at the Political debates next time?
68%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP