Will “ICE” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 12, 2025 (82%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 74% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.

74%from settlement history only · n=11counts: any candidate
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=ice

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

ICE

Probability
74% · n=11
Settled
9/11 (82%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 11 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 8, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Aug 20, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Jul 28, 2026ICEKalshiNo
Jul 27, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Jul 7, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026ICEKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Apr 28, 2026ICEKalshiYes
Jun 12, 2025ICEPolymarketYes

Questions

How often is “ICE” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 12, 2025 (82%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
What is the probability “ICE” is said at the Political debates next time?
74%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP