# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks by 2025-06-05 (settled) · 25 words · K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-25NOV30 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:42:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-06-05 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-25NOV30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of his next bilateral meeting with a foreign leader in the Oval Office, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	19	17	0.89	YYYYYYYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	16	14	0.88	YYnYYYYYnY	0.72	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	8	7	0.88	YnYYYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Russia	russia	12	10	0.83	YYnYnYYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Border	border	11	9	0.82	YYYYYnnYYY	0.51	hist	yes
Putin	putin	21	16	0.76	YYnYYYYYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Energy	energy	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.5	hist	yes
Trade	trade	2	1	0.5	nY	0.47	hist	yes
Pipeline	pipeline	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.41	hist	yes
Golf	golf	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.39	hist	no
Israel	israel	27	15	0.56	YnnnnnnnYn	0.37	hist	yes
Security	security	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Terrorism	terrorism	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Paris	paris	0	0			0.36	hist	no
Climate	climate	2	0	0	nn	0.35	hist	no
Defense	defense	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
G7	g7	0	0			0.35	hist	no
NATO	nato	8	2	0.25	nnnnnYYn	0.34	hist	no
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	10	3	0.3	YYnnnYnnnn	0.31	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	11	3	0.27	nnYnnYnnnn	0.31	hist	no
AfD / Alternative for Germany	afd|alternative for germany	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Asylum	asylum	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Berlin	berlin	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Free Speech	free speech	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Munich	munich	0	0			0.39	prior	no