Will Scott Bessent say “Trillion”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Trillion” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 21, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Trillion
- Probability
- 51% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…get $250 billion of that -- the budget deficit is approximately $1.8 trillion, so that would reduce the deficit substantially. If we could get that…
…Americans would have faced the largest tax hike in history, nearly $4 trillion. The average taxpayer would have seen a 22% increase in their tax…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…total investment commitments under the Trump administration have reached more than $5 trillion, including $500 billion from Apple in US-based manufacturing and training, $500 billion…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Trillion”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Trillion” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 21, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Trillion” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Trillion’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/trillion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=trillion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP