Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket listed 26 words for Tesla’s Jan 28, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4); 24 have settled so far, 15 of them Yes. Parrot’s count agreed with all 24 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 24- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 30 | 31 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Chip | Yes | 25 | 25 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Refinery | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 41%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Competition | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 56%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Energy | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Lidar / Light Detection and Ranging | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi Truck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Loyalty | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Architecture / Architect | open | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Units Deployed | open | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
19 matches for “Factory”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to take the Model S and X production space at our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory with a long-term goal of…
…made with autonomy, our focus is on ramping production at all our factories. Our biggest constraint globally continues to be on the battery pack front.…
…be in excess of $20 billion. We will be paying for six factories, namely the refinery, LFP factories, CyberCab, Semi, a new mega factory, the…
…premium-ness. We'll continue to do that, as Vaibhav said, investing in our factories, but these are all trade-offs of where we spend our time or…
…R&D phase. We have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory. But as we iterate on new versions of Optimus, we deprecate the…
Where the listed words were said
…post major steps. As we increase vehicle autonomy and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale, we are making very big investments. This is going…
…manufacturers of solar cells, and we are making massive investments in AI chips. I think these all make a ton of strategic sense. I guess…
…profile picture on X for a few months there, the future is autonomous. With respect to self-driving and robotaxi, people are obviously following with very…
…business, which is included within services and other. Additionally, note that our robotaxi business-related costs, while not material, are also included within this. Given that…
…name is Travis Axelrod of Investor Relations. I am joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results…
…years. Note that none of these countries have the latest version of FSD available yet. On the storage front, we hit yet another record in…
…factories. Or we didn't used to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or MegaPack factories or all these other things. We figured it out.…
…that by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI…
…best way to add significant capability to the grid is solar and batteries on Earth and solar in space. That's why we are going to…
Great. Moving on to the next question. After the unveil of the Cybertruck, Elon stated that if it didn't sell well, Tesla would build a…
…just a fully autonomous line. There's obviously a market there for cargo delivery, like you say, localized cargo delivery within a city, within a few…
…and Mega Block. However, we expect margin compression from the increased low-cost competition impacts to market from policy uncertainty, and the cost of tariffs. Services…
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