Will Tesla say “Refinery”?
Tesla did not say “Refinery” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 6, 0, 0, 12, 0, 2, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Refinery” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Refinery
- Probability
- 72% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production with the lithium refinery, the cathode refinery. We're scaling up battery cell production. We're also preparing…
Counts: anyone
12 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 11 in Q&A).
…of $20 billion. We will be paying for six factories, namely the refinery, LFP factories, CyberCab, Semi, a new mega factory, the Optimus factory. On…
…factories. Or we didn't used to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or MegaPack factories or all these other things. We figured it out.…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
6 counted (6 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…mining iron yet. But we are -- we have both a lithium refinery in South Texas. And it's -- I mean, the biggest lithium refinery…
…to expand and build more, right. And then we've got the catheter refinery in Austin next to Gigafactory. We've got to figure out what to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Refinery |  Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “Refinery” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla did not say “Refinery” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 6, 0, 0, 12, 0, 2, 0 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Refinery”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Refinery” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Refinery” next time?
- 72%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Refinery’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/refinery (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=refinery · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP