Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket listed 26 words for Tesla’s Jan 28, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4); 24 have settled so far, 15 of them Yes. Parrot’s count agreed with all 24 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 24- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 30 | 31 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Chip | Yes | 25 | 25 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Refinery | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 41%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Competition | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 56%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Energy | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Lidar / Light Detection and Ranging | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi Truck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Loyalty | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Architecture / Architect | open | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Units Deployed | open | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Demand”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the autos front, while in Q3, we saw a surge in US demand before the higher consumer credit cliff, pulling in some demand from Q4.…
…the result of high deployments in all regions and continued strength in demand for both MegaPack and Powerwall. As we look at 2026, our backlog…
…to jump-start our infrastructure build-out needs. Get ahead of robotaxi autonomous vehicle demand. We expect that because of this network, we are the only company…
…augment as the fleet grows depending upon the density of where the demand is and whatnot. But it's not something we just stumbled upon and…
Where the listed words were said
…post major steps. As we increase vehicle autonomy and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale, we are making very big investments. This is going…
…manufacturers of solar cells, and we are making massive investments in AI chips. I think these all make a ton of strategic sense. I guess…
…to bring the SX programs to an end and shift to an autonomous future. As my profile picture on X for a few months there,…
…business, which is included within services and other. Additionally, note that our robotaxi business-related costs, while not material, are also included within this. Given that…
…name is Travis Axelrod of Investor Relations. I am joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results…
…years. Note that none of these countries have the latest version of FSD available yet. On the storage front, we hit yet another record in…
…of $20 billion. We will be paying for six factories, namely the refinery, LFP factories, CyberCab, Semi, a new mega factory, the Optimus factory. On…
…that by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI…
…best way to add significant capability to the grid is solar and batteries on Earth and solar in space. That's why we are going to…
…How practical would it be to create this new design on the Cybertruck architecture, and could it be conveniently built on the existing production lines?
…15.4% to 17.9%. Automotive gross profit was flat sequentially despite 16% lower deliveries, primarily due to regional mix as we had proportionately more deliveries in…
…at AI, very good at manufacturing, and will definitely be the toughest competition for Tesla. To the best of our knowledge, we don't see any…
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