What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Kathy / Hochul” next time?

25%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Kathy / Hochul”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Kathy / Hochul” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Kathy / Hochul” at 1 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 27, 2025 (10%), most recently on Jan 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

25%from settlement history only · n=10counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 5 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 06:26 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Kathy / Hochul

Probability: 25% · n=10
Settled: 1/10 (10%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

We have a number of elected leaders here. We have our governor, Kathy Hochul; Comptroller Mark Levine; City Council Speaker Julie Menin; [and] Bronx Borough…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…maybe not so quick. But we heard — sorry, we heard Gov. Hochul, we heard Gov. Hochul last night defending the NYPD police officers against…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Captain Jack Conway, Ceremonial Unit, Police DepartmentotherMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

On behalf of Gov. Hochul and the Battery Park City Authority, welcome to Battery Park City. Each autumn since 1997, we've gathered here to remember…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.