What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Safe / Safety” next time?

34%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Safe / Safety”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Safe / Safety” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Safe / Safety” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 15, 2026.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. No keynotes among them yet.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 70¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 15:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Safe / Safety

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Walter J. McNeil, President, Edenwald Houses Tenant AssociationotherMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…to get this new senior center open so they could have a safe haven and a safe place to come to, because they didn't have…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…while leading the very work of keeping our neighborhoods and our community safe. Antoine's loss is heartbreaking for his family, for his loved ones, for…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…and outraged by this shooting. Every single New Yorker deserves to be safe on every single train, on every single subway platform, no matter where…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…— even just kind of to Jacob's question — keeping New Yorkers safe at large, just yesterday evening, I had the privilege of seeing our…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…shooting our city had seen in 25 years, Detective Islam placed himself in harm's way so that his fellow New Yorkers could escape to safety.