Donald Trump: Press conference, Feb 28, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the press conference with Keir Starmer at 2pm EST?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Zelenskyy presser on Friday?
Markets
36 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Special Relationship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Winston/Churchill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| King/Queen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| G7/G-7 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon/Musk | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mineral | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine 10+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Can you imagine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crimea | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Horrible 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| US / United States 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 5+ times | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| BBC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boris/Johnson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brexit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Five Eyes | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meghan/Markle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nigel/Farage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rishi/Sunak | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sadiq/Khan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soccer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tea | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 12%n=62 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTCONF-25FEB28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP