Donald Trump: Keynote, Aug 15, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during conference with Putin on August 15?
Markets
17 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zelensky | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Biden's war | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| BRICS / NATO 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kyiv | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nord Stream / Pipeline | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crimea | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Drone | No | 34%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Secondary tariff / Sanction | No | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=107 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-conference-with-putin-on-august-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP