Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 16, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during announcement today?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Putin | Yes | 50%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk / Patriot | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Thank you 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | 68%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 59%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut down | No | 57%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China / President Xi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AOC / Bernie | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left 3+ times | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=138 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-announcement-today-263 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP