Will Zohran Mamdani say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 28, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Israel / Israeli” at any of the 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 13% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 rallies we have transcripts for (Apr 12, 2026 – May 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Israel / Israeli
- Probability
- 13% · n=16
- Settled
- 0/16 (0%)
- Last 3 rallies
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in the past, that I don't believe that our city should purchase Israel bonds. We don't purchase the bonds of any other sovereign nation. I…
…of horrific war crimes, three years since Hamas killed more than 1,100 Israelis and abducted hundreds more. Three years of an anniversary that has brought…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Israel / Israeli |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 29, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 26, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 19, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 18, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| May 5, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Israel / Israeli”?
- As of Oct 28, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Israel / Israeli” at any of the 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
- 13%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP