Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, May 18, 2026
In remarks on May 18, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said 4 of the 18 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 17 of 18 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 18
Kalshibacktest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 8 | 17 | ✓ | 68%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 5 | 11 | ✓ | 51%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 45%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 1 | 3 | ✗ | 20%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Teacher | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim / Islam | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NYPD | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Jamie / Dimon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Era | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks / Mets / Yankees | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · Office of the Mayor of the City of New York (nyc.gov) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
…cannot say the same. Seventy-seven percent of households in surrounding neighborhoods cannot afford basic needs. More than 50 percent of households have relied on public…
…And I wanna first say thank you to Jeanny Pak, our interim president and CEO of EDC. I want to acknowledge a number of our…
…this announcement because as we have spoken about a cost of living crisis, as we've spoken about an affordability crisis, we know that at the…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/zohran-mamdani:2026-05-18:remarks-67a828 · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=zohran-mamdani:2026-05-18:remarks-67a828 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP