Pete Hegseth: Press conference, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Pete Hegseth holds Operation Fury Press Conference
Markets
20 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Civilian | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iraq | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hezbollah | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| F-15 / F-15E | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Submarine | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-HEGS26MAR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP