Pete Hegseth: Press conference, Mar 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Conference?
Polymarket What will Secretary Hegseth or Brad Cooper say during their press conference?
Markets
38 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civilian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iraq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Submarine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-35 / F-22 / F-15 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Power 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hezbollah | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Claude / Anthropic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| France | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Germany | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kurd / Kurdish | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President / Trump 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sacrifice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water Supply | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP