Pete Hegseth: Press conference, Jun 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Hegseth say at his Press Conference with General Caine?
Markets
21 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| B-2 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deterrence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fordow | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Isfahan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Natanz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Operation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Successful | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bunker Buster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Event Does Not Occur | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GBU-57 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Houthi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Khamenei | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Magnificent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spectacular | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stealth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yemen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-25JUN22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP