Pete Hegseth: Keynote, Dec 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during the National Defense Forum?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Dome | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recruit / Recruitment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autonomous | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-25DEC07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP