Pete Hegseth: Speech, Nov 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during his defense reform speech?
Markets
19 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pentagon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recruit / Recruitment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waste / Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autonomous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shipbuilding / Ship Building | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Force | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEGSETHMENTION-25NOV08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP