Pete Hegseth: Press conference, Mar 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Conference?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| School | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tomahawk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hezbollah | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-HEGS26MAR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP