The Weeknight: Episode, Feb 17, 2026
Kalshi What will James Walkinshaw say during The Weeknight?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | No | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ro Khanna | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26FEB17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP