The Weeknight: Episode, Mar 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Gary Peters say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress / Congressional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26MAR06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP