The Weeknight: Episode, Apr 27, 2026
Kalshi What will Jacky Rosen say during The Weeknight?
Markets
10 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | No | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manifesto | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26APR27B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP