The Weeknight: Episode, Jun 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Raphael Warnock say during MS NOW: The Weeknight?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26JUN22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP