The Weeknight (MS NOW), September 23, 2026
On the Sep 23, 2026 episode of The Weeknight, 7 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
15 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 5 | 18 | ✓ | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 2 | 9 | ✓ | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 24%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 1 | 55 | ✓ | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-weeknight:2026-09-23:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-weeknight:2026-09-23:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP