The Weeknight: Episode, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Janet Mills say during The Weeknight?
Markets
10 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 73%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Noem / Homan | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Criminal / Citizen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Senate / Senator | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP