The Weeknight: Episode, Jun 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Adam Schiff say during MS NOW: The Weeknight?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Clayton / Gabbard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UFC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26JUN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP