The Weeknight: Episode, Feb 14, 2026
Kalshi What will John Brennan say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / Border / Homeland | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26FEB14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP