The Weeknight: Episode, Jun 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Wes Moore say during The Weeknight?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan / Iraq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEWEEKNIGHTMENTION-26JUN16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP