What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Fox News next time?

38%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on Fox News next time?

Name: Fox News: “Shutdown / Shut Down” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Fox News in 5 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (42%), most recently on May 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

38%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes no no no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 05:56 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Fox News (interviews)

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability: 38% · n=12
Settled: 5/12 (42%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during Fox News: The Story with Martha MacCallum? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Rutte say during Fox News: America Reports? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Todd Blanche say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mike Johnson say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Ron DeSantis say during Fox News: Life, Liberty & Levin? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Marco Rubio say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rand Paul say during Fox News: The Will Cain Show? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mike Lawler say during Fox News: Life, Liberty & Levin? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 3, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes
Apr 26, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Apr 15, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Apr 6, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes
Apr 5, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Apr 3, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Mar 24, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes
Mar 18, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes
Mar 8, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Feb 22, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Feb 15, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes
Jan 28, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on Fox News?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Fox News in 5 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (42%), most recently on May 3, 2026.
What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Fox News next time?: 38%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Fox News: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/fox-news-interviews/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fox-news-interviews&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fox-news-interviews&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP