Fox News: America Reports, September 24, 2026
On the Sep 24, 2026 episode of Fox News (interviews), 10 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 14 | 25 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 5 | 72 | ✓ | 47%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 4 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 2 | 24 | ✓ | 47%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 32 | ✓ | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 1 | 15 | ✓ | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff / Sanction | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Security | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fox-news-interviews:2026-09-24:tv_episode-america-reports · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fox-news-interviews:2026-09-24:tv_episode-america-reports · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP