Fox News (interviews): Episode, Aug 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Marco Rubio say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 25%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 59%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 40%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFOXNEWSMENTION-26AUG01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP