Fox News (interviews): Episode, Apr 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Dave McCormick say during Fox News Sunday?
Markets
11 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 46%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Reconciliation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fetterman | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFOXNEWSMENTION-26APR05B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP