Fox News: The Story with Martha MacCallum, October 5, 2026
On the Oct 5, 2026 episode of Fox News (interviews), 7 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 12 of 14 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 10 | 14 | ✓ | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | 7 | ✓ | 58%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 67%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 0 | 1 | ✗ | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fox-news-interviews:2026-10-05:tv_episode-the-story-with-martha-maccallum · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fox-news-interviews:2026-10-05:tv_episode-the-story-with-martha-maccallum · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP